Mortality projections for Belgium

In most industrialized countries, including Belgium, mortality at adult and old ages reveal decreasing annual death probabilities. The calculation of expected present values (for pricing or reserving) for long-term survival insurance benefits thus requires an appropriate mortality projection in order to avoid underestimation of future costs. The so-called projected life tables include a forecast of the future trends of mortality. This paper updates previous projections based on recent mortality statistics, for the general population and for the insurance market. A discussion of the strategies to deal with the systematic longevity risk concludes the study. Michel Denuit, Julien Trufin, Julien Antunes Mendes et Elena Atienza Y Rubio